On February 12, 2024, Bitcoin rebounded from a previous low of nearly $15,000 back to a high of $50,000. At this point, I had no coins left. Why? I can only say that even if I were to casually spend my cryptocurrency, I wouldn't be able to "go to zero," but FTX had that ability! Sigh, my money was swept away by a garbage exchange 🥲.
I entered the market during the $60,000 BTC period in 2021, and then experienced the crash on May 19 🤣. In the second half of the bear market, my girlfriend, Jellyfish Sister, expressed her desire to buy coins as well, so I helped her enter the market when BTC was around $40,000, using a grid strategy called "Heaven and Earth Order." The grid is a tool for buying low and selling high to earn from volatility, but it cannot earn sufficient trend profits—the most important source of returns. After that, BTC rose to a historical high of $69,000, followed by a bear market lasting over a year, dropping to just over $15,000, a nearly 80% decline.
The holding experience during the bear market was very poor, but since I didn't buy all positions in spot, Jellyfish Sister's account only saw a maximum drawdown of about 1/3. However, she could no longer bear or feel this level of volatility, so she almost forgot about it, treating that money as lost.
I seemed to be overly aggressive and casual with my trading account, constantly searching for the "holy grail" of trading, testing trading strategies with programs, and engaging in automated trading, stepping into many pitfalls that everyone must face, including strategy overfitting and inappropriate capital management. In contrast, I operated Jellyfish Sister's account very cautiously, not daring to spend casually, choosing the most stable and least favored trading strategies.
After losing a lot of money, my funds were swept away by FTX. But Jellyfish Sister's money was in another exchange, escaping disaster. At this point, I had no intention of adding more funds, so I completely focused on her account.
In early 2023, at the market bottom when BTC was over $20,000, I miraculously sensed a market reversal and then almost fully invested Jellyfish Sister's account in BTC and ETH. As you can see later, amidst people's doubts, BTC entered a long climbing phase. It wasn't until a few days ago that Jellyfish Sister truly realized: she had made a 50% profit on her principal.
"Damn, I'm selling tonight." — Jellyfish Sister said when BTC was about to reach $50,000.
On February 12, 2024, BTC suddenly surged again, triggering Jellyfish Sister's fear of heights, a reaction I seemed to be somewhat familiar with, but I didn't know when the change occurred. Now, seeing such a trend, I felt no fear of heights at all and was very certain that it would continue to rise. I found this change quite strange. At this moment, I didn't listen to her, sell her holdings, and tried to alleviate her panic, saying:
"From now on, every time BTC rises by $10,000, I'll come to mock you once."
As I write this on February 28, 2024, with BTC priced at $61,000, Jellyfish Sister's account principal has doubled, and I executed the first mockery. It had been less than a month since I said the above. However, despite making a lot of profit, the huge volatility still posed a psychological challenge for her to accept.
I find this experience very interesting, so I wrote it down here and am willing to update it each time I mock Jellyfish Sister—hoping I get the chance to update it.
# Mockery Log.log
2024-02-12 [INFO] BTC=49k, Jellyfish fear of heights
2024-02-28 [INFO] BTC=61k, Mockery No. 1, Jellyfish account increase +34%
2024-03-11 [INFO] BTC=71k, Mockery No. 2, Jellyfish account increase +23%
As time goes by, Jellyfish's research direction shifted to blockchain, and her knowledge base gradually surpassed mine. When BTC retraced to $55,000, she asked me to help her buy some BTC to store in a cold wallet (influenced by AHR999's article)—a perfectly timed price. Her BTC investment luck far surpassed mine, so I should stop mocking and instead cozy up to the rich girl.
Since my own money was in the stock market, I bought MicroStrategy as a long-term substitute for BTC.
The reason the account increase in the log exceeds BTC's increase is due to leverage.
2024-11-10 [INFO] BTC=80k, No more mocking, Jellyfish account increase -16% (strategy impact)
2024-11-13 [INFO] BTC=90k, Account increase +22%
2024-12-05 [INFO] BTC=102k, Account increase +23%